China has consistently averaged more than 8% annual economic growth every decade, since Deng came to power in 1978.

As Hu Jintao stepped down from China’s Presidency earlier this month, he sealed the third consecutive power sequence of breathtaking growth. Hu (2002-2012), Jiang Zemin (1989-2002) and Deng Xiaoping (1978-1989) all delivered annual GDP growth averages well over 8%. Hu’s personal average was 10.7%, the highest of the three leaders and put him on track to double per person income from 2012-2020. But will Xi Jinping have the same staggering success?

While growth has slowed, it has far from stopped. The IMF forecasts China’s 2013 economic growth to be a strong 9%. Considering thus-far successful inflation policies implemented in the past year, the value of the RMB continuing to trend upward and government efforts to stabilize the economy in a sustainable way- 9% seems quite reasonable.

As China becomes a global power, the majority of the uncertainty seems to be coming from the West. A new Linklaters study on the topic was recently released, with an end note stating: “For China, constant extension of its international capabilities will enable it to implement its growth plan for the next thirty years, developing a more sustainable path for itself and the world economy.” They sound confident.

Advertisements